Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Binancial District's avatar

Bravo, super clever.

Lyn Alden has accurately observed that most of what is happening on DeFi right now is circular. It's not feeding on real self-sustaining demand. It's just feeding off of speculative activity.

If, like many of us, you believe much of the financial system is going to eventually run on crypto, then you're only concerned about when and not if real uses cases are going to come down the pike. Circular it is for now, but no biggie.

This is what I find astounding. Speculative activity is just the tip of the iceberg. How much does Big Tech make up of market indices today? What are the flows in and out of AMZN, GOOG, FB, etc. with every index-related transaction? Whatever amounts those are must dwarf the flows in and out of AMZN, YHOO, EBAY, etc. during the early internet heyday. What are the revenue numbers for the Big Tech giants today vs. the early internet leaders after they first went public?

If today, this circular early heyday speculative activity is enough to drive a run rate of ~$9B already, how large is that same number going to be when the full iceberg is in view? If the tip of the iceberg is a $9B run rate already, the run rate at maturity is going to be mind-blowing.

Granted, there was a large NFT frenzy in Q1 and a strong bull market in crypto as well, but not matter how you cut it, we are talking very large numbers when it comes to Ethereum transaction fees even today.

Expand full comment
Liberty's avatar

Clever!

Expand full comment
15 more comments...

No posts