Worldwide — May 17, 2021 — Ethereum (DEX: $ETH), the world’s leading decentralized, open source blockchain reported financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2021. Key Results Total transaction fees, also known as network revenue, increased 200x to $1.7 billion in Q1 2021, compared with $8 million in Q1 2020. For the month of April, Ethereum generated annualized revenue run rate of $8.6 billion—comparable to AWS in 2015.
Lyn Alden has accurately observed that most of what is happening on DeFi right now is circular. It's not feeding on real self-sustaining demand. It's just feeding off of speculative activity.
If, like many of us, you believe much of the financial system is going to eventually run on crypto, then you're only concerned about when and not if real uses cases are going to come down the pike. Circular it is for now, but no biggie.
This is what I find astounding. Speculative activity is just the tip of the iceberg. How much does Big Tech make up of market indices today? What are the flows in and out of AMZN, GOOG, FB, etc. with every index-related transaction? Whatever amounts those are must dwarf the flows in and out of AMZN, YHOO, EBAY, etc. during the early internet heyday. What are the revenue numbers for the Big Tech giants today vs. the early internet leaders after they first went public?
If today, this circular early heyday speculative activity is enough to drive a run rate of ~$9B already, how large is that same number going to be when the full iceberg is in view? If the tip of the iceberg is a $9B run rate already, the run rate at maturity is going to be mind-blowing.
Granted, there was a large NFT frenzy in Q1 and a strong bull market in crypto as well, but not matter how you cut it, we are talking very large numbers when it comes to Ethereum transaction fees even today.
James, really appreciate your thoughtful articles. Re ETH, is there a way to use this earnings release to triangulate to your TP = $40k? I understand you may have to make many assumptions at this point but just wanted to get your thoughts on how to think about ETH as a fundamental investment. Thanks again.
Love these articles. Impressive revenues in terms of growth and USD. How will 2.0 effect the absolute revenue number in USD and with the decrease in transactions cost going forward, how much will transactions have to increase to make a comparable revenue stream? Thanks.
Ethereum has a 70% central premine of what controls it that was free for only 1 central party, that means 1 party with more control than all others combined. 1 party in control of pricing literal incentives and stake is in no way decentralized and clear weakest link in the design - the reason no developers have ever centrally premined, only scammers did. Ethereum is 100% centralized so it's ONLY the worlds largest scam, nothing else. There is no DeFi on a centralized network, just random projects claiming to be that for marketing purposes same way Ethereum, bitconnect, and onecoin only claimed to be cryptocurrencies. They literally already had confiscations which are trivial on premined network.
Bravo, super clever.
Lyn Alden has accurately observed that most of what is happening on DeFi right now is circular. It's not feeding on real self-sustaining demand. It's just feeding off of speculative activity.
If, like many of us, you believe much of the financial system is going to eventually run on crypto, then you're only concerned about when and not if real uses cases are going to come down the pike. Circular it is for now, but no biggie.
This is what I find astounding. Speculative activity is just the tip of the iceberg. How much does Big Tech make up of market indices today? What are the flows in and out of AMZN, GOOG, FB, etc. with every index-related transaction? Whatever amounts those are must dwarf the flows in and out of AMZN, YHOO, EBAY, etc. during the early internet heyday. What are the revenue numbers for the Big Tech giants today vs. the early internet leaders after they first went public?
If today, this circular early heyday speculative activity is enough to drive a run rate of ~$9B already, how large is that same number going to be when the full iceberg is in view? If the tip of the iceberg is a $9B run rate already, the run rate at maturity is going to be mind-blowing.
Granted, there was a large NFT frenzy in Q1 and a strong bull market in crypto as well, but not matter how you cut it, we are talking very large numbers when it comes to Ethereum transaction fees even today.
Clever!
James, really appreciate your thoughtful articles. Re ETH, is there a way to use this earnings release to triangulate to your TP = $40k? I understand you may have to make many assumptions at this point but just wanted to get your thoughts on how to think about ETH as a fundamental investment. Thanks again.
LALANTOP
This is great!
Love these articles. Impressive revenues in terms of growth and USD. How will 2.0 effect the absolute revenue number in USD and with the decrease in transactions cost going forward, how much will transactions have to increase to make a comparable revenue stream? Thanks.
what stupid prediction on ETH. pure garbage
Ethereum has a 70% central premine of what controls it that was free for only 1 central party, that means 1 party with more control than all others combined. 1 party in control of pricing literal incentives and stake is in no way decentralized and clear weakest link in the design - the reason no developers have ever centrally premined, only scammers did. Ethereum is 100% centralized so it's ONLY the worlds largest scam, nothing else. There is no DeFi on a centralized network, just random projects claiming to be that for marketing purposes same way Ethereum, bitconnect, and onecoin only claimed to be cryptocurrencies. They literally already had confiscations which are trivial on premined network.
Genius.
Canadians are so polite they approve ETFs quickly 🇨🇦
Trades on "DEX" exchange ... love it
Please keep this up - excellent format for consumption by TradFi
Brilliant summarised update!
Brillant idea!